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2026 / EXPLORATORY RESEARCH

Can a real signal still be a bad strategy?

I combined insider disclosures with market data and financial-news sentiment to test whether they could improve a trading strategy. The study found a signal, but the portfolio did not improve net returns after costs.

THE PROJECT, AT A GLANCE

MY CONTRIBUTION
I combined insider disclosures, market data and news sentiment, then compared event signals with portfolio results after costs.
WHAT HAPPENED
The reported event signal did not translate into improved net returns after costs. News coverage was too sparse to validate the interaction.
NEXT TO TEST OR DEVELOP
Broaden the news coverage and check its timing before relying on the sentiment interaction.
DISCLOSURE ≠ DECISIONEVENTSIGNALCOSTSOUTCOMECONCEPTUAL WORKFLOW / NOT A RETURN CHART−
SIGNAL ≠ STRATEGYCONCEPTUAL DIAGRAM / NOT EXPERIMENTAL DATA
01

Data and methods.

The framework combines insider disclosures with market data and financial-news sentiment. It includes event studies, tabular neural models, LightGBM comparisons and multi-objective portfolio optimization.

02

When the information became available.

A signal cannot act on information before it arrives. The implemented signal construction activates on the next trading day, making the disclosure-to-decision boundary explicit.

03

Results after costs.

The project report describes a measurable post-disclosure event signal, but the portfolio optimization did not improve net returns after costs. The statistical finding and the economic outcome are different claims.

04

Gaps in the news data.

The available FinBERT news coverage reached only 9 of the 396 tickers in the reported universe. That is too sparse to treat the sentiment interaction as validated. Sector-label coverage is another limitation in the audit.

9/396

Tickers with available news coverage.
Too few to validate the sentiment result.

WHAT I TAKE FROM IT

The event signal did not produce better net returns in this study.

STILL OPEN

Would broader, time-aligned news coverage change the interaction result?

NEXT PROJECT / 04

When is information worth more than capacity?

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