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2026 / EXPLORATORY MODEL · UNDER VALIDATION

How does a rumour become a trade?

VERITAS is a model of how stock-market rumours spread through social networks and influence trading. I’m interested in how forwarding rules and financial literacy might change those decisions.

THE PROJECT, AT A GLANCE

MY CONTRIBUTION
I developed VERITAS to model how investor beliefs, social connections and trading decisions affect one another.
WHAT HAPPENED
The model is still being checked. Earlier numerical results need solver and validation checks before I can rely on them.
NEXT TO TEST OR DEVELOP
Recheck the solvers, validation splits and numerical results before making quantitative claims.
BELIEF → NETWORK → DECISION
BELIEF HAS A NETWORKCONCEPTUAL DIAGRAM / NOT EXPERIMENTAL DATA
01

How the model works.

VERITAS connects agent-based belief dynamics, multiplex social networks and market microstructure. It explores how forwarding rules and financial literacy might interact, rather than treating every investor as an identical recipient of information.

02

How the model has changed.

The repository describes a transition from a simple epidemic model on a random graph toward a richer belief model with multiple social layers. Mean-field and market-order models extend the investigation, while introducing mathematical and calibration questions of their own.

03

What I still need to check.

Earlier versions reported effects from combining interventions. The solvers, validation splits and numerical results need to be rechecked before I can rely on those estimates. For now, this page describes the model and the questions it is meant to test.

WHAT I TAKE FROM IT

The model tests whether who shares a rumour affects the trades it leads to.

STILL OPEN

When do changes to a network help more than changes to individual behavior?

NEXT PROJECT / 06

Can a calm decision survive a moment of panic?

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