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2026 / RESEARCH MANUSCRIPT · ONGOING VALIDATION

When is information worth more than capacity?

This study looks at two purchases a freight planner can make before demand is known: capacity and information. I’m testing when paying to learn more changes how much capacity is worth buying.

THE PROJECT, AT A GLANCE

MY CONTRIBUTION
I formulated the capacity-and-information problem, implemented the solver comparisons and wrote the research manuscript.
WHAT HAPPENED
No algorithm led in every regime. Three of five cities passed a validation criterion that required four.
NEXT TO TEST OR DEVELOP
Investigate why the city validation fell short and which benchmark structures carry over to real operating networks.
From the validation resultsRESEARCH
Original freight-study validation figure comparing test-day failure fractions across five LaDe cities and Olist.VIEW FULL SIZE ↗
Original manuscript figure. The LaDe pickup test met the criterion in three of five cities; the declared target was four.
01

The planning problem.

The Capacity × Information study models these two decisions together. It asks how the cost and timing of information affect the capacity decision.

“Before the booking cutoff the planner may also buy timely signals that split the outcomes into observation cells; the reservation must then cover the heaviest cell.”From my research manuscript, 15 October 2026
02

Methods I compared.

The implementation includes a pairwise mixed-integer formulation, a submodular-cover heuristic, hierarchy dynamic programming, exact rational checks and information-capacity frontiers. The algorithm that works well depends on the size and structure of the instance.

03

Benchmark results.

The current manuscript records a 13,300-task benchmark and a 1,600-task controlled rerun. Strengthening cuts did not repay their runtime cost. No single algorithm was best across every regime.

04

Validation so far.

The LaDe pickup validation criterion required four of five cities to pass; three passed. Olist forms a separate validation arm. The manuscript does not establish a general operational benefit for all freight networks.

3/5

Cities passed the LaDe pickup criterion.
The declared target was four.

WHAT I TAKE FROM IT

No method performed best across every problem. The city validation also fell short of its target.

STILL OPEN

Which decision structures carry over from a benchmark to an operating network?

NEXT PROJECT / 05

How does a rumour become a trade?

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